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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Closed Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.