‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Availability.
The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's homes.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.
Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.
"The situation is dire. LPG simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."
Regional Impact
In a western metro, local news say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers note a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Authority's View
Yet, the government insists there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.
Roughly 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.
The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been caused by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.
According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.
India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.
Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The key weakness is LPG, experts note.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.
Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of hoarding.
An industry representative alleges price gouging.
"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."
For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
