A Lasting Ceasefire Involving Israel and Palestine? We have Seen This Pattern – The Consequence Was More Bloodshed
So, what time period is this? The White House occupant, after months of quiet support, has at last become involved to stop an military campaign from Israel that has transformed large areas of a urban center in the region to ruins, leaving thousands deceased and prompting international condemnation.
The offensive has followed a series of strikes on Israel. Currently, responding to pressure from the US administration, the prime minister of Israel, a conservative politician with a gift for populist rhetoric and an intense sense of historic Zionist mission, has agreed to a halt in hostilities.
Past Echoes
The era is not 2025, but four decades ago. The city is not Gaza City, but the Lebanese capital. The American president is President Reagan, not the current administration.
We find numerous variations between what happened in the Lebanese nation over four decades ago and recent developments in Palestinian territories in the last 24 months. The Hamas raid of last year, which caused over a thousand and involved 250 captured, shows limited similarity with the relatively paltry efforts of the Palestine Liberation Organization in the year or so prior to military entry of Lebanon.
Remarkable Resemblances
Some are uncanny. Reagan finally picked up the phone the prime minister, informing him that the situation in the city was "a disaster" and explaining the diplomatic ties between their states could be seriously harmed if the violence carried on.
During that period, similar to current times, the fighting unfolded in real time on televisions worldwide. Hundreds correspondents entered Beirut to document for the first time an Arab–Israeli war without censorship by any party.
Results and Outcomes
The situation subsequent to the communication from the US president and the truce in Beirut is revealing. The liberation movement, its groups and officials were scattered across thousands of miles and a multiple nations.
Washington then withdrew US-led peacekeepers – a breach of the understanding with PLO leadership. Bashir Gemayel, Lebanon's recently chosen president and Israeli-supported figure, was murdered by Damascus operatives.
Middle Eastern Changes
The same was true across the broader area. By the end of the 1970s, the increasingly non-religious and forward-thinking concepts that had seemed to offer the potential of a changed reality in the Middle Eastern nations a decade or so earlier were undermined.
The outcomes of this became very clear, in short order
Across the region, the Israeli state and the United States now faced opponents who were considerably more unyielding, deadly and capable than the secular movements and patriotic organizations of earlier years.
International Reaction
Among Western nations, the consequences of this were unexpected. Through the 1970s, international experts and government representatives had tried to analyze what generated armed fundamentalism.
Subsequently, in the early 1980s, this ended. Political leaders in the America, the United Kingdom and other nations were no longer interested in "underlying reasons" of conflict.
Current Similarities
In recent days, accounts show that today's officials communicated to Israeli counterparts that Israel could not oppose international consensus and admitted national hopes for a independent nation.
This also was an repetition of historical precedent. In the wake of the armed entry of the neighboring country, previous leadership told the Israeli government that the power of its defense establishment alone could not "establish just and lasting peace" and accepted "legitimate rights of the Palestinian people."
But a internationally-backed diplomatic initiative supposed to answer those concerns stalled completely. Abroad, national representatives looked on impotently.
Worldwide concern in the region waned. The nation resisted any concessions. Subsequently, there was the major unrest, and the founding of further armed organizations.
- The repetitions of history offer sobering lessons for present-day diplomatic initiatives
- Permanent settlements require dealing with underlying issues rather than brief halts
- Area politics continue to evolve in complex and sometimes unexpected ways