🔗 Share this article

Each time the wind flows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for problems.

That is when giant white balloons are dispatched across the border, with crates of cheap cigarettes swinging beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this smuggling operation has compelled Lithuania's primary air hub into closure 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the government are adamant they are dealing with something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an manifestation of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian government has announced an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Of course it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises criminal networks to impact adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, each evening, military police head out in the border zone.

The balloons are primarily seen under cover of darkness.

Teams set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, checking drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any company that can figure out how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a deterrent.

Political Objectives

The border itself is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing sanctions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."