Behind this Pageantry of Putin's Delhi Trip: An India-Russia Relationship Which Has Frayed.
The diplomatic language and imagery from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India hinted at a strong two-way partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the statesmen took a ride together, echoing a known diplomatic style. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th visit to India over his 25-year rule and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Gap Between Symbolism and Substance
Nevertheless, a clear divide exists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian companies are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil due to external pressure. The two nations concluded numerous memorandums of understanding covering mobility, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and academic exchanges. However, anticipated revelations on significant defence deals failed to materialize. India has abstained from any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by holdups in shipments of equipment and components as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.
A Partnership With Diminished Geopolitical Influence
These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer holds the same geopolitical clout it once possessed. In the Cold War, India maintained special barter arrangements and economic entry to the USSR and its allies. This unique relationship peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have sought to preserve a appearance of this special tie through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the reality is that their interaction does not have the former significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the West.
Diversification and Underlying Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial relationship with Moscow. Yet, as external pressure mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to diversify the relationship into other sectors. During Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme extending until 2030, aiming to make their ties "broader, equitable and sustainable". This includes enhancing market access for Indian goods to address a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two covers multiple strategically important fields – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Bonds and Perceived Reliability
At an ideological plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's pivotal role during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid recent tensions between India and the US, in which American leaders have issued sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a more reliable ally.
This key difficulty, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive declaration issued during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the relationship as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the war have been minimal.
Squaring the Circle: New Delhi's Global Balancing Act
This situation highlights the inherent complexities in India's foreign policy. The country is set to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, following a comparable pact with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.
How will India square this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that current talks will bear fruit, resulting in a end of hostilities and the removal of a major thorn in its relations with the Western bloc. But, should a peace deal is reached, if it falls short of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, critical examination of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly persist in European and American governments.
