Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The mean number of per-day killings each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative statistics. However, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide numbers may not indicate enhanced countrywide safety.

Notable Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded during these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

However, security researchers warned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for assessing the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it may mask days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Using the daily average renders spikes of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to voice their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.