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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."