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Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year backed the progressive this year. However it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.